Lumber prices retraced towards the $500 per thousand feet benchmark, hovering around the lowest level since mid-August, due to indications of a slowdown in demand. Recent data revealed a decrease in US softwood lumber imports from Europe, which amounted to 428 million board feet (mmbf) during the second quarter. This figure is a 30% drop from the record-setting volume of 610 mmbf in the first quarter and a 12% lag behind the total from the same period last year. European exports to the US are expected to sustain a downward trajectory throughout at least the third quarter, falling short of the previous year's record levels, due to elevated interest rates and decreasing production in Europe. Additionally, North American exports to offshore destinations continued to show signs of weakness due to lackluster demand in most significant markets. Elsewhere, concerns persist about a constrained supply due to the impact of Canadian wildfires.
Historically, Lumber reached an all time high of 1711.20 in May of 2021. Lumber - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on August of 2023.
Lumber is expected to trade at 491.08 USD/1000 board feet by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 425.29 in 12 months time.